BIG MARLEY’S UFC FIGHT NIGHT 134 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend we have an early card Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I do like these early cards so that I can wake up and have a DraftKings sweat and then go out and enjoy the rest of the day once the struggles are over. This Sunday’s card will take place in Hamburg, Germany and there are plenty of fighters producing their UFC debut. Because of this, I believe we ought to have a large edge this week if we place in the work. Most casual players will not be doing research on those titles they have never heard and will just be throwing lineups trying to get lucky and hit a big score. I’ll be chasing the big $15k top prize in the $8 GPP in addition to the Qualifiers. The majority of my investment will be in cash games, largely H2Hs, but I’ll be taking multiple shots at these big prizes. Listed below are a Couple of plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It’s a tough card this Sunday and I think we will see a good deal of people making errors in cash games. Whenever I believe I can guarantee a total 100+ points in a struggle, I love to stack it in my cash games and lock in those factors. I think this battle will be a fun one and I highly doubt it belongs to the scorecards. I believe we can observe numerous knockdowns too which would help, but I think we readily get over 100+ points combined with these two guys. Let’s let everyone else make the mistakes and we can lock at a 100+ points and a triumph, and then we only have to locate another 3 wins we are convinced in.
GPP play of this week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I believe that this matchup was put up to get Bermudez a triumph. He has quite a slick entry game and if this fight goes to the ground I think he will pick up advance points quickly and locate a submission. Grant has had problems with submission defense in his career and even if he’s winning on the toes, he shoots for takedowns every fight. I think if Manny can not get the takedown himself, then Grant will eventually go to it himself and it’ll cost him. I think we could see a 1st round entry here and that should easily get that the 10x+ we are looking for at his $9.2k price label.
Underdog drama of the week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
If Shogun can win this battle he’ll easily pay off this price . He has 100-point upside and with a 7.5k salary that will certainly place him on the winning lineup if he can arrive. Anthony Smith has been knocked out more times than Shogun and has fought considerably worse competition. I would not be shocked if Shogun is able to get a KO here against Smith, who is carrying this fight on short notice. Shogun has markedly slowed down from the past few years but I believe he still has enough in the tank to possibly pull off an upset victory . I do need exposure to both men in GPPs, but I believe you want some vulnerability to Rua if you are making multiple lineups.
Fade of the week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have quite a few fades this week and I am going with a smaller player pool in hopes of my own selections being right and I can hit the ideal combo. It’s hard to choose one favourite fade this week however I shall select Nick Hein. I really do think Nick Hein will win this battle, and I believe he will use takedowns to get the choice win here. So, you would think that sounds great on DraftKings because wrestling stands up things. But, he does not chain together takedowns and that he usually ends up with only 1 or 2 in his UFC wins. He does not have much finishing ability and I really don’t see him getting a submission. But I believe we will see 2-3 takedowns here and him grinding his way to a Unanimous Decision victory just as we have seen from him previously. Hein has 4 UFC wins and all these are his DraftKings game titles for all those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I’m not interested in having any DK investment on Hein with those scores. That is why he’s my fade of this week.
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